Why Trump Achieved a Major Step in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Concerning Ukraine

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Trump and Putin's planned negotiations on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been postponed indefinitely.

Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian presidential meeting have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.

Only a few days after Donald Trump said he intended to confer with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been put off without a new date.

A initial meeting by the two nations' top diplomats has been called off, too.

"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told the press at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I will observe what transpires."
  • Donald Trump says he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
  • Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky leaves Washington without results

The on-again, off-again meeting is another twist in the president's attempts to broker an end to war in the Eastern European nation – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a truce and hostage release deal in Gaza.

During a speech in the North African country last week to celebrate that truce deal, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a new request.

"It is essential to get the Russian situation resolved," he declared.

Nonetheless, the conditions that aligned to make a Middle East success achievable for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for almost four years.

Less Leverage

Per Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was Israel's decision to attack Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that angered US partners in the Arab world but gave Trump bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.

Trump gained from a history of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, including his choice to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his support for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.

The American leader, actually, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.

Add in Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a abundant diplomatic muscle to secure an agreement.

In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has much less influence. In recent months, he has swung between attempts to strong-arm the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.

Trump has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that doing so could disrupt the global economy and intensify the conflict.

At the same time, the president has publicly berated Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing weapon deliveries to the country - then to retreat in the face of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the entire region.

The president loves to tout his skill to meet and hammer out deals, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to advance the hostilities any closer to a resolution.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Putin's summit in the summer produced no concrete results.

Putin may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.

During the summer, Putin agreed to a high-level meeting in Alaska just as it seemed probable that Trump would approve on legislative penalties backed by GOP senators. That legislation was afterwards put on hold.

Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then touted the potential meeting in Hungary.

The following day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but left without agreements after a allegedly strained discussion.

The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by Putin.

"As you are aware, I've been played throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged really well," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the Ukrainian leader later made note of the sequence of events.

"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for our nation – the Russian side almost automatically became less engaged in diplomacy," he stated.

So, in a matter of days, Trump has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender all of Donbas – even land Russia has been unable to conquer.

He has ultimately decided on calling for a truce along current battle lines – something the Russian government has rejected.

During his election campaign previously, the candidate promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since discarded that commitment, saying that concluding the hostilities is turning out harder than he anticipated.

It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of establishing a framework for peace when both parties desires, or is able to, cease hostilities.

Anthony Morrison
Anthony Morrison

A seasoned gamer and strategy expert, Elara shares her passion for competitive gaming and innovative tactics to help players excel.