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Two days remaining.

England's first Test in Australia begins on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we explore where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to score runs, right?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are bothering to turn up.

A lot of the build-up has centred around the apparent challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, especially against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A common belief from English cricket describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the home side are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have required support, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

Aside from Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have won by a total of 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, outcomes have remained strong – The tourists should pay attention.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England could not find an opener to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners faster than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a reason in Zak Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who famously struck the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australia.

His average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

After Warner's departure at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, most likely back at three.

Across seven matches in the current year, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the home team to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics largely stands up compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was introduced, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a depressing habit of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

Traditionally, the series began in the Gabba, where they have not won since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have visited 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the same, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

Perth stages an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the visitors approach with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the location for the second match, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia played a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, though with risks.

Australia have won four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new venue has been claimed by the team batting first.

The English often complicate day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|