Keir Starmer's Allies Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Mayor's Commons Re-entry
Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending byelection.
Serious Hurdles in the Selection Process
Several figures on the party's ruling NEC have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the significant number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are desperate to avert any future leadership challenge.
The party apparatus is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the party leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his current role and would only return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
Several insiders also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the body could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a significant campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.
The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an inappropriate online group.
