🔗 Share this article

The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, though experts believe PVV stands little chance of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a multi-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has declined since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer over a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the vote earns a party one MP. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of power. However, critics and analysts argue that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations may require several months, political observers indicate that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is anticipated soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.